Indonesia Conference Directory

Corresponding Author
Simon Shepherd

Institutions
Institute for Transport Studies
University of Leeds
UK

Abstract
In this paper I reflect on the use of product diffusion models using a system dynamics approach in the forecasting of transition pathways around the uptake of electric vehicles. I look back at how realistic my previous work was for the UK given we now have 8 years of sales data. I find that the previous forecast was overly optimistic and after re-validating the model the forecast is for a weal uptake at best. I consider the different elements of uncertainty in the used models. There are uncertainties in terms of input parameters based on validation with limited sales data, uncertainty from assumed behavioural parameters within the product diffusion process and the choice model. Structural uncertainty in terms of assumed availability and finally structural uncertainty in terms of delay structure assumed in the typical models used to model fleet turn-over is considered. This last structure has important implications on the most optimistic transitions often in the minds of key stakeholders and policy makers. Finally I look at the use of such a model in the electric scooter market for Bandung.

Keywords
system dynamics, transition pathways, modelling, policy

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/merJYQXACLyD

Corresponding Author
Lely Trianti Anggarini

Institutions
a) School of Business and Management, Bandung Institute of Technology
Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia
*lely_trianti[at]sbm-itb.ac.id

b) National Center of Sustainable Transportation Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology
Jl. Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia

Abstract
This research aims to comprehend how public electric vehicle is preferred among other transportation modes namely shuttle bus, public bus, private motorcycle, and private car, specifically for long-range (approximately more than 20 km) daily commuting. Data collection process is conducted using questionnaire-based survey that is divided into three sections: Stated-Preferences (SP), Sociodemographics (SD) characteristics, and statement evaluations (SE). SP includes eight sets of selected labelled experiments with several attributes: travel time, travel cost, waiting time, access and egress time, access and egress cost, frequency, congestion time, and parking cost. Information on age, gender, and income are compiled in the SD section. The experimental design is developed using NGENE with a D-efficient design. We manage to gather 333 respondents and each of them corresponds to the 8 scenarios presented. Thus, a total of 2664 observations are acquired for further analysis in the light of travel mode choice behavior. An open source Python package, Biogeme, is used for the choice modeling analysis. Biogeme is designed for the maximum likelihood estimation of parametric models in general, with a special emphasis on discrete choice models. In this study, multinomial logit (MNL) modeling techniques is used as it is common in transportation research. There are 39 parameters (K= 39) used in the study comprised of four alternative specific constant (ASC): ASC1 for public electric vehicle (PEV), ASC3 for public bus (PB), ASC4 for private motorcycle (PM), and ASC5 for private car (PC); eight coefficients (beta) for each PB, PEV, and SH comprised of access and egress (AE), access and egress cost (AEcost), congestion time (Ctime), frequency (Freq), travel time (Ttime), waiting time (Wtime), emission level, and vibration and noise level; five coefficients for each PM and PC comprised of congestion time, parking cost, travel time, emission, and vibration; and a generic coefficient of travel cost. This result indicates that Indonesian commuters are sensitive to congestion time, travel time, and travel cost in all transportation modes except public bus; and to vibration and noise level only in public transportations. Emission level in public transportations is more concerning for the commuters that in private transportations. Frequency of public transportations are unimportant and parking cost only matters to private car users.

Keywords
Electric vehicles; transportation; choice model; SP survey; Indonesia

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/LeDMr6bgcfU4

Corresponding Author
Ainul Ghurri

Institutions
(a) Department of Mechanical Engineering
University of Udayana
Bali, Indonesia
*a_ghurri[at]unud.ac.id

Abstract
Plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) is one of promising vehicle type to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The potential of PHEV is highly dependent on the mileage need of the vehicle, the availability of charging station, the capability of the electrical source, and the commitment of the driver itself to do the charging. The present study is aimed to analyze some interdependent factors in actual driving of PHEV to its fuel economy. The analysis was conducted by using the actual data from daily driving of six drivers. The PHEV is gasoline engine equipped with 8.8 kWh battery. All drivers have access to the charging station at workplace with their own daily mileage from home to workplace. The availability of charging station in drivers- home was not same due to the difference in capacity of electrical source. The PHEVs were provided with data acquisition covering mileage, fuel consumption, fuel economy, engine mode duration, EV mode duration, etc. The results showed that the fuel economy of the PHEV varied highly depended on the combination of factors faced by each driver. The access to the charging facility and the time availability to do charging impacted to the daily charging frequency, then affected the EV driving ratio. The daily mileage also strongly affected the EV driving ratio and then impacting the fuel economy of the PHEV. The charging frequency of the six drivers varied from 0.6 times/day to 2 times/day. Houses with electrical capacity 3500 W is capable to charge the PHEV at 8A current in 5 hours until full charged. The charging facility in workplace was able to charge at 16A current in 2 hours until full charged. The fuel economy of the PHEV varied from 29.2 km/l until almost 100 km/l. The fuel economy at 29.2 km/l was not so different with the fuel economy of HEV without plug-in feature, so the large capacity of the battery was not beneficial. The results underlined that the charging facility and the electrical source capacity together with the recommended driving distance of the vehicle were the very important consideration to decide the battery capacity installed to the PHEV.

Keywords
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, fuel economy, EV driving, battery charging

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/c8Y7TnBKahEC

Corresponding Author
I Made Widiyarta

Institutions
Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, University of Udayana, Bali, Indonesia
*m.widiyarta[at]unud.ac.id

Abstract
Private passenger vehicles highly contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO2). Increasing the fuel economy of private vehicles have been the main goal for reducing fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions. The increase in fuel economy of commercial vehicles has been the main objective to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. One of technology is hybrid electric vehicles. This paper analyses the fuel economy of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and compared to the conventional gasoline engine vehicles. The fuel economy data were recorded from 2 gasoline engine cars, 2 hybrid electric cars, and 2 plug-in hybrid electric cars; during six weeks daily driving with mileage 25-50 km/day each car. Those six cars were driven by six different drivers. The results show that the fuel economy of the HEV is in the range of 22.4 to 13.1 km/l, for the PHEV, the fuel economy is in the range of 55.4 to 88 km/l, and in the range of 10.1 to 12.9 km/l for the gasoline engine cars. The PHEV had the highest fuel economy and very wide variation in fuel economy. This was affected by the availability of the charging facility, the easiness to access the charging station, and the commitment of the driver itself to do charging the car. Fuel economy of the HEVs was the most consistent in any situation of driving. As for the gasoline engine cars, the traffic condition has a quite big impact on the fuel economy. The estimated fuel consumption reductions for the HEVs and PHEVs were about 56% and in the range of 60% to 85%, respectively. The estimated CO2 reductions were about 48% for the HEVs and about 55% for the PHEVs.

Keywords
Hybrid electric vehicles, fuel consumption, CO2 emission reduction

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/WQ3pnFu6fcdK

Corresponding Author
Puguh Budi Prakoso

Institutions
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Indonesia
National Center for Sustainable Transportation Technology, Indonesia
e-mail: puguh.prakoso[at]ulm.ac.id, ifradam[at]ulm.ac.id, najmi.fahrina[at]gmail.com

Abstract
The presence of online transportation modes is a manifestation of the rapid development of information technology, especially smartphone and apps technology. Because of the critical issues of safety, service quality assurance and effectiveness of load factor to its capacity, online transportations in Indonesia cannot be classified and regulated as public transportation. The main function of online transportation is actually as a short distance feeder to public transportation. Unfortunately, because the public transportation is not adequate, so the online transportation functions slowly become informal public transportation mode. This in the future can cause problems in a city, especially when the increasing number of online transportations will rise the vehicle traffic together with private vehicles. To understand and prevent this problem becoming bigger in the near future, the mode choice between private vehicles and online transportations requires to be studied first. The purpose of this research is to obtain a reliable model of modal choice between private vehicles and online transportation by comparing the multinomial logit (MNL) probability method with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to study the accuracy of the performance of the two models for the mode selection between private vehicles and online transportation, and to evaluate the socio-economic factors underlying the mode choice between private vehicles and online transportation in the city areas of Banjarmasin and Banjarbaru.

Keywords
mode choice, multinomial logit probability method, ANN, online transportation

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/cM2wVQmhey9k

Corresponding Author
Narasimha Balijepalli

Institutions
Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK

Abstract
This paper reviews the electric scooter (motorcycle) use in three countries viz., China, Taiwan and Vietnam and identifies the prospects for Indonesia. This review is based on published information in scientific journals and the prospects projected for Indonesia are based on a collective learning experience from other countries rather than as a result of the implementation of policy. Towards the end of twentieth century, several Chinese cities have implemented regulatory measures such as suspending issuance of new licences, banning the entry of motorcycles/scooters to city centres, capping/auctioning of licence plates. These regulatory measures created favourable conditions for the promotion of electric scooters in Chinee cities. Weak enforcement of standards also helped the electric scooter market further which resulted in a boom in their numbers from a mere 56000 in 1998 to 21million in just 10 years. However the policy at regional level is inconsistent which makes the future of electric scooter uncertain in China. Taiwan made a conscious effort persistently over a number of decades to promote electric scooters firstly to sustain the oil shock and then to improve the air quality in their cities. Instead of adopting a regulatory approach, they relied on subsidies as a strategy to promote e-scooters which was quite successful as the sales went up by 8.79 times (779% increase) from 1500 in 1998 to 13000 vehicles in year 2000. However, inconsistent quality and inadequate maintenance quickly dampened e-scooter sales that led to the suspension of the subsidy programme. In 2009 Taiwan revived the promotion again by addressing three key issues identified – cruise range/long charging time, durability of battery/high running cost and nationwide recharging network. Vietnam has a high motorcycle population (>90% of total number of vehicles) and can potentially benefit from adopting e-scooters to reduce the air pollution. A stated preference experiment found that consumers are highly sensitive to fuel prices though they discount the fuel cost savings at much higher rates (up to 40%) due to the uncertainty involved. Superior technology of e-scooters is valued at VND 10 million which implies that if better technology is delivered at cheaper prices, the adoption rate will significantly improve. Finally consumers are willing to pay VND 1.64 million to avoid a sales tax of one million. This equates to reducing the recharge time by 3.5h or increasing the range by 90km. Thus incentivising the consumers is likely to help boosting the e-scooter sales by a significant margin. Learning from the experience, Indonesia may develop an appropriate strategy to launch their e-scooter programme which is balanced between incentivising the consumers/manufacturers/ charging station operators and regulatory measures such as phasing out polluting internal combustion engines by raising the emission standards. Significant adoption rate in Indonesia will improve the

Keywords
Electric scooter, suitable development, air quality

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/QuL9bTAVCe6h

Corresponding Author
Natanael Waraney Gerald Massie

Institutions
a) Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus UI Depok, Depok 16424, Indonesia
*natanaelmassie2009[at]gmail.com
b) Institute for Economic and Social Research, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), Kampus UI Salemba, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia

Abstract
With the Electrified Vehicles (EVs) ventures being in the early stage, the cost-benefit analysis of the vehicles is key towards capturing the Indonesian market. As consumers, however, pricing may not only be the costs they consider; they also consider the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the cars they purchase. With that regard, this study discusses the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the EV in the Indonesian context, including calculations for HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle), PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle), and BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle), as well as Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles for comparisons. Specifically, this study aims to: (i) identify the monetary factors which affects total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia, (ii) construct a TCO model and calculate the value of total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia, and (iii) compare the value of total cost of ownership of electric and conventional cars in Indonesia related to the relevant switching cost between EVs and ICE. Our findings suggest that generally, in Indonesia, higher usage and/or length of ownership of EVs lead to more competitive TCO compared to ICE. We also explore a comprehensive number of scenarios (e.g., total annual mileage, years of ownership, price, fuel prices, and cost incentives) in which the TCO of EV maximizes Indonesian consumer welfare.

Keywords
Electrified vehicle; Incentives; Total cost of ownership; Indonesia

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/MBHudNxg3WTy

Corresponding Author
Muhammad Farda

Institutions
Institute of Technology Bandung
University of Leeds

Abstract
Transportation sector has been the main contributor to greenhouse gas emissions globally and is more significant in emerging economies where the vehicle growth is very high. Immediate as well as long term strategic measures need to be developed and implemented to tackle the growing problem. Indonesia is a country with high vehicle population particularly dominated by gasoline motorcycles. The Indonesian government has acknowledged the problem and been formulating policies to support vehicle electrification as the way ahead. A joint Indonesian industry and research institution has been designing an electric motorcycle to promote the policy on vehicle electrification. However, the question emerges whether electric motorcycles can compete with gasoline motorcycles in Indonesia. This study assesses the uptake of electric motorcycle in Indonesia, particularly in Bandung city which is the 3rd most populous city in the country. This study designed a bespoke stated preference survey questionnaire to capture the preferences of the users and analysed data using discrete choice methods. In particular, three models, namely multinomial logit, mixed logit and hybrid logit are used to assess the share of electric motorcycles. This study contributes to the literature by adding new charging methods, namely plug-in and battery swap, either at home / office parking or charging station. In addition, this study measures the importance of electric motorcycle attributes, such as purchase price, operational cost, maximum speed and range per charging, and estimates the marginal willingness to pay. An understanding on factors influencing electric motorcycle uptake will be beneficial for manufacturers to improve the performance of electric motorcycles. Moreover, the policy makers will also benefit by knowing which aspects of electric motorcycle they need to support for it to reach a high penetration. The outcomes of choice models feed into a system dynamic diffusion model which considers broader factors affecting the electric motorcycle uptake over a period of time which is presented in a separate paper.

Keywords
Electric Motorcycle, Choice Modelling, Stated Preference

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/gpAPCfBhXknZ

Corresponding Author
Tryas Agung Praesha

Institutions
Fakultas Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan Institut Teknologi Bandung & Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds

Abstract
The negative impact of air pollution resulted from transportation sector gives a strong signal to many countries, including Indonesia, in order to deliver less polluting and more energy efficient modes of transport. Indonesia is the one of the highest greenhouse gas emitters in the world with progressive growth of gasoline cars and motorcycles sales over the years. Indonesian government has identified the problem and has been planning to support the implementation of Electric Vehicles (EV). One new local electric scooter manufacturer named GESITS has been developing the electric scooter in response to the Indonesian government-s plan of vehicle electrification. The question then arises as to what sort of policy required to foster the electric vehicles introduction to the market and to make the uptake self-sustaining. This study reports on system dynamics model-based study of factors which may influence demand for electric vehicles with Bandung City as the study area. The core of this paper is system dynamic model, which enable us to identify significant factors to get successful diffusion of Electric Scooters taking into account the complexity of several interrelated elements. The model used in this study builds on system dynamic work by Struben and Sterman (2008) and extends it with similar approach done by Shepherd et al (2012) to allow analysis of the Bandung market. This study contributes to past literature since none of them studied the diffusion model for electric scooters. We show that certain attributes such as price and range have a decent impact on take-up under business as usual case if we set them as dynamic value that affected by cumulative experience instead of fixed value, while subsidies have little impact on take-up. We introduce a conditional marketing scenario and tests the impact of policies such as removal of fuel subsidies and instead adding a fuel tax on gasoline motorcycle, as well as impact of vehicle attribute factors such as charging method to tip the market into successful trajectory. This study explored the sensitivity of the results to assumptions on reference rate of social exposure, average scooter life, and word of mouth. The results of this study have significant policy implications that will benefit policy makers

Keywords
electric scooter, system dynamics

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/eZajy697m8xY

Corresponding Author
LEN Len

Institutions
LEN

Abstract
Electric vehicle is the future for automotive and is inevitable to avoid. Sooner or later, Indonesia, as a developing country, will start to implement electric vehicle whether the technology come from the outside or from the inside. PT Len Industri has a long record of research and development experience as it is originally a national research institute before transforming into a state owned enterprise. Using this experience of developing new technology, PT Len Industri starts to develop the technology for electric vehicle. As a state owned enterprise, it should also keep business as top priority. Having this kind of privilege, PT Len Industri can become the bridge between the development of electric vehicle technology and the requirement from business side.

Keywords
Electric Vehicle

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/r7CVJnaP2hAk

Corresponding Author
Natanael Waraney Gerald Massie

Institutions
a) Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Kampus UI Depok, Depok 16424, Indonesia
*natanaelmassie2009[at]gmail.com
b) Institute for Economic and Social Research, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI), Kampus UI Salemba, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia

Abstract
Electrified vehicles (EV) entry to the Indonesian automotive market at the moment is relatively new, with market penetration being modest at best. This study discusses two major socioeconomic aspects of EVs in their early ventures in the country. First, we examine the feasibility and the impact of accelerating the development of electric cars in Indonesia in economic, environmental, and fiscal aspects. Second, we use primary data analysis by conducting users and prospective car users in the Greater Jakarta area to elicit the consumers- preferences for electric cars. In this analysis, we specifically estimate the necessary price incentives for each of the EV types, i.e., Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV), Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PHEV), and Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), to gain certain market exposure in the country. We also utilize simulation method in estimating the impacts of various scenarios of policies in accelerating the use of EV vehicles on the automotive industry market and the automotive component industry, as well as government (fiscal), environmental (CO2 emission reduction) and macroeconomic revenues. Our findings suggest that considerable amount of price and non-price incentives is needed to encourage Indonesian consumers to consider EVs compared to ICE. On the environmental and fiscal perspective, we find PHEV serve as the better vehicle to be introduced into the country-s automotive landscape, with a prudent mixture of the three aforementioned EV being also a viable option.

Keywords
Electrified vehicle; Socioeconomic impacts; Incentives; Indonesia

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/WrPdMaJnckpU

Corresponding Author
Puguh Budi Prakoso

Institutions
Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Indonesia
National Center for Sustainable Transportation Technology, Indonesia
e-mail: ifradam[at]ulm.ac.id, puguh.prakoso[at]ulm.ac.id, utami.s.lestari[at]ulm.ac.id

Abstract
In order to improve the public transportation service in the city of Martapura, the expectations from the side of the users are required to know. These factors are essential because a good public transportation service according to the passenger expectations will encourage the users to utilize more public transportation. Therefore, this study has goals to understand the factors of choosing public transportation (minibus) from the user expectations, to investigate the lack of the service and performance of the existing public transportation and to find a solution of improving public transportation service in the city of Martapura. Partial Least Square (PLS) method was employed to perform data analysis of a questionnaire survey from the passengers. The study demonstrates that the most important factors expected by the passengers are schedule and waiting time, fare system, safety, environmental impact, mode-s integration and connection, driver attitude, vehicle performance and capacity, access and performance of the bus stops, passenger comfort and information.

Keywords
passenger expectation, public transport, PLS

Topic
EV Socio-Economical Impact

Link: https://ifory.id/abstract/4kBfwCtTyGKd